PESQUISAS ELEITORAIS: uma triste contribuição para a antidemocracia no Piauí
Por *Orlando Berti
A eleição deste ano com certeza trará a infeliz marca de ser um dos pleitos eleitorais mais nebulosos da história do nosso Piauí. Um dos fatores que ajuda no enterro da democracia são as pesquisas eleitorais (ou algo que chamam de pesquisa).
Antes de falar propriamente delas quero destacar que há institutos e ynstytutus (ou seja: algum monstrengo que diz trabalhar com pesquisa). O problema é que os institutos de verdade se recusam a entrar em maracutaias. Já os ynstytutus saem Piauí afora e adentro fazendo as maiores atrocidades em nome da pesquisa eleitoral. Muitas pela bagatela de R$ 50 mil (valor impraticável para uma pesquisa de verdade).
Institutos que a gente nunca ouviu falar, metodologias que mais parecem exercício de quem nem sabe o que é isso, margens de erros que enterram qualquer visão estatística e, o mais grave, pesquisa ao gosto do freguês, ou seja, de quem paga (seja o candidato X ou Y). Pesquisa não, algo que é chamada de pesquisa, mas que tem puramente a intencionalidade de manipular a eleição.
O mais imoral é que qualquer pesquisa fará um estardalhaço, ou para os que estão à frente ou para os que estão atrás.
Naturalmente qualquer pesquisa pode ser manipulada pela amostra (nível de representatividade do todo), pelos locais escolhidos (quem encomenda as pesquisas mequetrefes escolhe quais lugares seu candidato tem mais voto), pelas imorais margem de erro, tem pesquisa aí com oscilação de 12 pontos, isso mesmo: 12 pontos!
Por isso que em uma mesma cidade muitas vezes pesquisas variam até 20 pontos dependendo do ynstytutu.
Ou o Piauí para no sentido de moralizar isso ou as pesquisas eleitorais, de vez, entram para a parte mais vergonhosa dos capítulos antidemocráticos de nossa história.
*Orlando Berti é cidadão ativo, jornalista, professor universitário, pesquisador em Comunicação Social, extensionista e militante social. Um amante da vida e das pessoas!
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